Covid 19 States’ reopening strategy
In the wake of a decline in Covid-19 cases, the reopening of states’ is not a ‘prudent strategy. On the contrary, it might result in raising the infection rate ad cause more damage than anticipated as the vaccination rate remains low in many states, the global forecasting firm Oxford Economics.
“We remain cautious and maintain our 2021 growth forecast at 9.1 per cent,” the report said. Voicing that the economic data does not support an upward revision at this point.
The dwindling in the coronavirus cases and the low test positivity rates have prompted many states to reopen that are in place to curb the infections. However, against this backdrop, the firm added that the vaccination rates remain low and easing the social distancing measures are below the safety norm.
Therefore, while partial restrictions are likely to be extended in the third quarter, the relaxation in restrictions among states started at a rapid pace than expected, Oxford Economics noted.
“We think this reopening strategy is not prudent and may result in a renewed rise in infections and re-tightening of restrictions in the future,” it said. The report further added that the states have only focused on decreasing positivity rates and not on the population’s vaccination rate.
“This strategy could create a challenge going forward if infections increase again, especially as we head towards the festive months, and vaccine coverage remains low in many states, including the more populous ones,” it said.
Oxford Economics noted that in May, the hit rate appears to be high than in June.” This may lead us to lower our Q2 2021 growth forecast once we have greater clarity on economic progress through June,” it said.