Indian Economy not getting a V-shaped recovery because of the second wave of the pandemic
The lockdown measures implemented by states in April and May to contain the second wave of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic could cause the economy to contract by 12% in the June quarter, down from 23.9% in the same period in 2020.
The economy experienced the worst contraction in FY21 history, at 7.3%, because the central government only announced an unplanned shutdown of 2.5 months four hours notice in advance, crippling the economy in the first quarter with a contraction rate of 23.9%, but the situation was somewhat different. The improvement was -17.5% in the second quarter.
However, the system started out with strong V-formed healing withinside the 2d 1/2 of the year, while it finished high-quality boom of forty foundation points, with a boom charge of 1.6% withinside the fourth zone and an international contraction charge. 7.3% for the year.
This 12 per cent contraction will cause the system to lose strong V-formed healing. This isn’t the same as the picture/situation after the lifting of the country’s final year, due to the fact purchaser self promise remains very capable of being hurt this time, due to the fact human beings are extra worried about the widespread disease than they had been final/very best year, stated Swiss dealer UBS Securities India. Unlike the V-shaped recovery in 2020 expect the economy to have only a gradual recovery rate this time, as consumer sentiment remains weak on pandemic related uncertainties
That said we expect economic recovery and the resultant control of the pandemic to lift consumer and business confidence. So we can consider that the positive momentum for vaccination increased from 2.5 M doses in may to 3.2 M doses per day at the end of the week of 13 June.